An ecosystem in transition: Implications for navigating a space of rapid change
The barriers, drivers, and leadership blueprint we’ve discussed so far are the “micro-changes” of the industry that are setting up leaders for success. Now, when we look from a macro perspective, we’re seeing three large-scale ecosystem transitions that are redefining how money moves.
For decades, payments infrastructure was built on what was then the most advanced technology available. Those systems served their purpose in an earlier era, but the technology foundation has since shifted.
Today’s always-on economy runs on immediacy, flexibility, and seamless orchestration that these older systems were not designed to deliver. Even after decades of upgrades and patches, it remains rigid and costly to maintain, and these legacy systems have become increasingly intertwined and are part of a complicated web of other interdependent systems making them harder and harder to replace or innovate on top of.
How industry leaders are staying current and moving ahead:
Legacy systems to modular, API-driven platforms
Shift from legacy systems to platforms that enable orchestration, scalability, and integration across all payment types such as; real-time, card, account-to-account, and alternative payments such as BNPL, crypto currencies, and stablecoins.
Intelligent orchestration
Adopt intelligent orchestration to optimize routing, reduce declines, improve reconciliation, and accelerate collections while lowering transaction costs.
Emerging payment innovations
Prepare ahead of innovations so adoption is seamless when demand accelerates.
Modernization, compliance, and customer expectations
Ensure systems can meet all the complex industry and regulatory requirements while delivering more flexible and better customer experiences.
The implication is that modernization is not a discretionary upgrade, but essential for leadership. Stand-out organizations continue to make the hard choices about sequencing investments, retiring aging infrastructure, and building future-ready platforms while managing balance-sheet risk, navigating regulatory complexity, and holding off ever-more sophisticated fraud.
Remember, our data showed that while 69% of organizations believe they are leaders, less than half have a clear modernization roadmap and only a quarter are actively phasing out legacy systems. That gap is where the true opportunity lies.
— ECOSYSTEM SHIFT two
Advancing
trust, protection, and identity
The warning signs are already here. Fraud attacks are rising at the same pace as instant payments expand. In the UK, authorized push payment (APP) scams are surging alongside Faster Payments. In the US, the launch of the FedNow® Service has raised industry discussion about how fraudsters will exploit instant networks. ACI’s Scamscope report projects that APP scams over instant networks will account for ~80% of all APP scam losses by 2028, reaching about US$6.1 billion.7
In response, the technologies that define the trust framework have advanced. Biometric authentication has become a standard in security through devices like Apple Face ID and fingerprint sensors. The EU is piloting decentralized digital identities that allow people to carry verifiable credentials across institutions. On the risk side, federated machine learning lets institutions share anonymized fraud signals without exposing sensitive data, strengthening collective defenses.
Risk management has become richer, more dynamic, and contextual. Digital identity is now more persistent and common across devices and channels for an individual payee. Fraud abatement has improved with greater ability to predict threats before they land. Compliance processes such as sanctions screening run through AI engines, driving better outcomes and automating more processes.
How industry leaders are boosting defenses:
AI-driven fraud and risk models
Implement AI-driven models that predict and prevent threats in real time, reducing false positives while safeguarding revenue and customer trust.
Identity and authentication
Strengthen authentication frameworks with biometrics, device-bound credentials, and digital identity tools that secure interactions across all channels while keeping friction low.
Intelligence networks
Participate in federated intelligence networks to share anonymized risk signals, detect anomalies, and combat fraud collectively without exposing sensitive data.
Fraud orchestration
Embed contextual fraud orchestration into core systems ensuring every transaction is evaluated in relation to user behavior, device trust, and payment patterns.
Brand transparency
Reinforce trust through transparency and brand alignment using clear customer communication and visible security measures to position protection as both a safeguard and a differentiator.
While most organizations view themselves as balancing innovation with security and compliance, 20% admit they are not prioritizing talent retention or actively retiring outdated systems. Our survey results reinforce the gap.
That can leave fraud and protection services frameworks fragmented, and customer confidence vulnerable. Customers expect their payments to be secure, automatic, and instant. Meeting that expectation requires continuous reinvestment in protections, integrated fraud orchestration across channels, and leadership willing to treat protection as a competitive differentiator, not just a compliance requirement.
— ECOSYSTEM SHIFT three
Maximizing performance
in the era of automation
Paying has always been a clear action. You would enter a card number, type a password, or sign a receipt. Today, paying feels simpler than ever. Mobile wallets make “tap to pay” feel effortless. Amazon’s Just Walk Out technology lets customers walk out with purchases automatically billed. Subscriptions and auto-replenishment flows mean payments happen without conscious input. Automated transactions are no longer a glimpse of the future. They are already part of daily life.
Soon, AI systems will more regularly monitor balances, recognize needs, and authorize transactions without prompting. A utility bill might be paid the moment usage hits a threshold. A digital assistant might handle renewals or shift a payment method based on account behavior. As these experiences become more common, traditional checkouts continue to become more automated.
How industry leaders are maintaining performance during modernization:
AI agents and automation
Develop AI-driven agents and automation that can handle transactions, subscriptions, and commerce flows on behalf of customers, reducing friction and enabling proactive financial management.
Personalized services
Advance value-added and personalized services that enrich the customer journey and go beyond commoditized payments.
Loyalty and rewards
Evolve loyalty and rewards into seamless experiences, ensuring that incentives, financing, and offers are woven directly into automated, agent-led journeys rather than bolted on.
Fraud, identity, and security frameworks
Strengthen fraud, identity, and security frameworks so that agent-driven transactions remain both frictionless and secure.
— SUMMARY
This shift has real implications.Customers now expect seamless payments across all methods, requiring resilient coordination across networks and geographies. Yet 55% of executives admit they aren’t fully using available technology, even as customers demand smooth, disruption-free modernization.
The question is how quickly organizations can adapt. Automated transactions heighten the need to protect liquidity in real time, preserve trust, and ensure uninterrupted payments across channels.
